Thursday, September 11, 2008

नवनि नीच कै अति दुखदाई...

So all the hush bush of Nuclear Deal is almost over now.India has got the waiver and the government,experts,diplomats and the aam public seem to be very happy. The deal in some sections of media is being touted as a recognition of a growing stature of India.STOP.

The deal wouldn't have been possible without the relentless arm-twisting by US.The fact is, NSG is a creation of US and if the deal couldn't have got the waiver ,it would have meant a loss of reputation for US.

But the central question of the piece is not what the deal symbolises but the fact that deal is too sweetened for India.Comeon..We as a nation have not attained a status that would have got a deal that has stuck at the heart of international nuclear non-proliferation(atleast by western standards).India is the only country in the 40-odd membered nuclear supplier group that has obtained a waiver without having signed CTBT/NPT.Isn't it too great a status for a nation which faces opposition from the smallest of its neighbours including Pakistan,nepal,bangladesh.The nations who don't heasitate starting shelling across the border at their fantasy.Nations which keep infiltrating illegal citizen,goods and arms across the border inspite of the strongest of evidences against them.Nations who don't mind bombing our commercial and political hubs inspite of international criticism.
True,we have been a rising power and I would love to see India as a central player in global arena.But the fact is,portraying the deal as the rising status of India is simply a overstatement.

But why would US support India to such an extent,out of the box way?The news is,even the mandatory rule of 30-day period for which the US congress has to be in session for the deal to make through, is being relaxed.US has been too friendly to believe in recent days.At this point of time I can't help but recall a doha(poem) from Ramcharitmanas which goes like this..

नवनि नीच कै अति दुखदाई। जिमि अंकुस धनु उरग बिलाई।।
भयदायक खल कै प्रिय बानी। जिमि अकाल के कुसुम भवानी।।

I think ,a little explaination of above would certainly help.It says,when a bow bends-it releases arrow,goad has to go back in order to hit,when a cat retreats it's a certain sign of an upcoming attack and a snake first goes a step back in order to inject its poison in your veins.In the same way when a mean creature becomes too meek for you,be cautious something may be in surprise for you.ALso when flowers blossom out of season it signals famine ,in the same way unexpected friendliness of a villain has to be treaded cautiously.

US is being too close to india and anyone having a little glance over newspapers of 90's would certainly awe,given the villifying campaign of those days that US headed against India while it supported Pakistan unconditionally.It's time when diplomats have to take steps thoughtfully and when politicians should speak judiciously.US would definitely ask a price for the deal and in a way it has started already,asking for its companies to be preferred while awarding contracts related to Nuclear Power Plants. These are business demands,diplomatic and political ones would follow pursuit soon.
When friendship goes beyond a certain threshold of intimacy ,you stand a constant chance of spoiling the relation unless the two are very clear about each other and they share a cohesive chemistry.US and India are far from reaching that level of understanding and it'll always help if we can restrain ourself from smooching each other so soon.The deal radiates to a domain that engulfs not only nuclear arena but political and economic too..

The potential prices that we may have to pay include:-
(1) US wants India to stand against the massive chineese economic and diplomatic clout and thus balancing the power in the subcontinent.Agreed..It helps to keep a neighbour in check for growing out of control and but it also helps to have cordial relations with it..We have to follow our own judgement..before going on a collision path with beijing.

(2) Iran...this is where any na-nukur would almost certainly lead to frowned eye-brows of Uncle Sam.Iran has traditionally been a friendly nation to India and perhaps a progressive Islamist State.It's in our interest that Iran progresses economically,technologically so that Islamic world has role-models like Iran and not Pakistan.This issue is going to test Indian Diplomacy to the core and let's see how our seasoned diplomats handle this.

There may be many more for example on trade WTO meets,UN sessions and Cases like Georgia too.We have to ensure that we don't just end up being another Tony Blair for George Bush/Obama/Mccain.

As an adage says,"Nothing is permanent in Politics,neither friends nor foes".US seems to know this principle more than anyone else.Initially it was Pakistan against a friendly nation to erstwhile USSR i.e. India.Now it's India pitted against a communist China which threatens the Gold of US be it at olympics or Economics...

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