Saturday, March 21, 2009

Is Our Multi-Party Character at its Peak?

Never has it been that we have so many wannabe PM's going into election all at a time.This election is probably the Local Maxima of India's Multi-Party Democracy and I sincerely think that 2014 will see a much more consolidated fight between two projected PM candidates.
From 1989 onwards multi party democracy has seen a steep rise of influence with many regional satraps playing a major role in deciding who occupies the coveted chair at North Block.We have seen many maya,mamta or jaylalitas causing tremors across delhi with just a sneeze.But now I believe that this all will end,not immediately but over a course of time and we'll see the trend catching up in 2014 elections.Well 2014 is 5 years away and I'm not predicting this on the basis of planetary postitions either,I have some reasons to say so....

(1) The two national parties over the past few years have worked on their Second Generation Leaders and probably it's the last time that Advani will decide who's who at BJP or Sonia Gandhi will play Rajmata.In all probability,Rahul Gandhi will take on the baton from her mother and Narendra Modi from Mr. Advani.Both of them have mass national appeals and them participating against each other will see a strong polarisation of votes.

(2) Don't you think,it's too much of uncertainity over who will be our next leader?
The public after having been perplexed by so many choices will finally zero on to two or three(The Rule of Three :)).This I see as a gradual evolution of Indian Democracy into a matured one.Indian Public after having been disappointed by National Leadership looked on to Regional Leaders and as is clear,the aspirations are still unfulfilled barring a few exceptions(eg Uttaranchal) so once again the mandate will move to national leadership.

(3) Unlike National Parties,state based parties are still nascent ones and rely heavily on Individuals for their existence.Once the Magic of Bal Thakrey or Lalu Yadav wanes,their votes are likely to be up for Grabs and with national parties gearing up so well,I think they'll have this chunk.

(4)The betrayals at Bhuvaneshwar and Patna is a lesson enough for both BJP and Congress that alliances can't be a long term solution and already we can hear talks that going alone this time in some states will prepare them well for future elections.
Though a bit shocked,BJP in Orissa and Congress in Bihar & UP is relieved to go alone and test the waters.

(5)A likely fractured mandate this time will see further distraction of public from regional politics and I rely heavily on the our Democratic Intellect when I say that 2014 will see a reversal of fortunes for regional parties.

With Thakreys fighting a battle for survial and Lalu being in the most vulnerable state this time,we can see the signs of future to come.
We'll have to wait till 2014 to know whether I have been correct or not,but for Now we have a very interesting contest going on and let us savour it as India has never seen an election as chaotic as this one...

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