After the elections were over,a few of my friends asked me to write a piece about the mandate and its consequence on Indian polity.Many of us were surprised the way congress gained a clear majority,but i believe there were enough indications of it already.Deep inside,I had expected that either BJP or Congress will emerge too stronger to be dictated terms by their allies in the day to day functioning of the government.I had expressed the same views two months back in a blog post and I am happy that I have been vindicated by the Results.(The Link is http://ashutoshdubey.blogspot.com/2009/03/is-our-multi-party-character-at-its.html)
Now coming back to the Election results.The way I see it:
The election has proved beyond doubt that Indian Masses want national parties to call the shots at North Block.Its not that regional parties will loose their importance,they will be important, but only in case of Assembly elections.From here onwards,we can see a clear trend of Regional parties getting comprehensive victory in assembly elections only to be kept out of picture in general elections.Yeah,Indian democracy is showing its first signs of maturity and moving towards a state of federal equilibrium.
One very important outcome of this mandate has been that all the hitherto immensely powerful regional satraps have been left either bruised with defeat or severely dented in their capacity to arm-twist the government.Even if they have respectable numbers as DMK,Trinamool,Sp,BSP,NCP, they are in no position to negotiate with congress and will have to be content with whatever compassion Singh & Sonia show on them.Those outside the UPA as Nitish,Naveen Patnaik will also find themselves totally out of the scene from the national politics.Others like Lalu,Bal thakrey,Ramvilas Paswan find themselves in the most vulnerable of situations in their entire political career.(More on these later)
The rise of Gandhis is one phenomenon that has been blown out of the proportion by the Media.Remember,the Trio (Rahul,Priyanka and Sonia) has been fully concentrating in the UP for more than 5 years, yet they manage to get only 1/3rd of total seats and we call it a victory.The fact is,it has more to do with the distraction of people from regional politics at National level.The real strength of Congress in UP will be seen at the time of assembly elections.
Bihar,never in last two decades,Lalu was so vulnerable and I am happy he is.Lalu trying to snatch a moment so that he can shake hands with Priyanka is a story that tells it all.Any other day,he would not have even cared for where even Sonia is,but as someone said 'Time is a great Leveller'.Leaders like Lalu Yadav,Mayavati,Bal Thakrey thrive on power & power only to maintain nd increase their support base.A few years out of power and their magic wanes.Nitish in all these years has made some severe dent in the support base of Lalu and the maverick politician will have to come up with something fresh to counter the Person who in political circles is often called as 'Chanakya'.
Overall,this is a government which looks committed to deliver.Somewhere,I get a feeling that they will deliver too.As of now,there are so many hot items waiting on the platter for the government, turmoil in Pakistan,tamil crisis in Sri lanka and political crisis in Nepal to name a few.
